Macro indicators · September 2026 release · Live BLS
Consumer prices are up +3.7% year-over-year.
The two headline inflation reports — CPI on the consumer side, PPI on the producer side. Live from the BLS, updated whenever they publish.
CPI · Consumer Price Index
September 2026+3.7%
year-over-year
3-mo annualized
+3.6%
Index value
336.9
What it measures: the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services households actually buy — groceries, rent, gas, healthcare, haircuts.
PPI · Producer Price Index
September 2026+6.3%
year-over-year
3-mo annualized
+8.1%
Index value
159.8
What it measures: the prices producers receive at the factory gate or wholesale. Often shows up in CPI 2-6 months later.
Right now
Where the numbers sit — and where they seem to be going.
CPI momentum
Now
+3.7%
YoY, September 2026
3 mo ago
+3.5%
YoY, June 2026
1 yr ago
+3.0%
YoY, September 2025
Over the last quarter, CPI YoY has moved by +0.21% pts — that's accelerating. The 3-month annualized rate is +3.6%, which is what CPI would look like if the last three months kept repeating for a year.
PPI momentum
Now
+6.3%
YoY, September 2026
3 mo ago
+5.6%
YoY, June 2026
1 yr ago
+3.0%
YoY, September 2025
Producer prices are accelerating — momentum of +0.76% pts over the last quarter. Since PPI tends to lead CPI by two to six months, this is a preview of what may hit shelves later this year.
Simple projection · 3 months out
CPI YoY, projected
+4.0%
vs +3.7% now
PPI YoY, projected
+7.4%
vs +6.3% now
Extrapolates the last 6 months of YoY momentum three months forward. Not a forecast — a simple "if recent momentum continued" number. Real projections from the Fed, IMF, and private forecasters model far more variables (energy, wages, base effects, expectations).
Distance to the Fed's 2% target
+1.7%
points above target
The Fed formally targets 2% on the PCE, not CPI, but the two move together. Getting CPI back to 2% typically means slowing services and shelter inflation, which are the stickiest components.
CPI–PPI spread today
-2.6%
3 mo ago: -2.1%
Reading the spread.
When CPI runs hotter than PPI (positive spread), consumer prices are climbing faster than producers can pass through — services and shelter, largely — meaning inflation is unlikely to fade purely on its own. When PPI runs hotter (negative spread), factory-gate costs are building up and will likely push CPI higher in the coming months.
Historical PPI-leads-CPI correlation at a 3-month lag (last 3 yrs): r = -0.25
The story since 2019
The producer line moves first. The consumer line moves longer.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI-U All Items (CUUR0000SA0) and PPI Final Demand (WPSFD4), both not seasonally adjusted. Fetched live from the BLS API and merged with a calibrated historical series pre-2023. Released monthly with a ~2-week lag.
In plain English
Two prices, two stories.
Headlines say "inflation came in at X%." They usually mean the CPI YoY. But the PPI tells you what's coming next month at the checkout.
CPI · what you pay
Tracks retail prices for a basket of about 80,000 items a month — rent, gas at the pump, the cart of groceries, dentist visits.
Used to set: Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, federal tax brackets, TIPS bond payouts, and most union COLA clauses.
PPI · what stores pay
Tracks wholesale and factory-gate prices — what farmers sell wheat for, what oil refineries charge, what shippers bill for freight.
Why watch it: PPI shocks usually pass through to CPI in 2-6 months. A jump here is a leading indicator for your future receipts.
Peak
+9.1%
CPI YoY peaked in June 2022 — the highest since 1981.
A year ago
+3.0%
CPI was running here in September 2025.
Fed's target
+2.0%
The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation around here over the long run.
How it shows up at home
A CPI number is a household number, dressed in a suit.
A grocery cart
A +3.7% CPI reading means a $200 weekly cart now costs about $207 — $389 more a year, just to stay even.
A monthly raise
If your raise is below +3.7%, your real take-home shrank — even though the number on your paycheck got bigger.
Your savings account
If your bank pays 0.4% and CPI is +3.7%, your dollars lose 3.3% of buying power each year just sitting there.
From the headline to your receipt
See what the +3.7% CPI actually looks like in your cart.
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